The purpose of this presentation is to show that there could be other forces driving evolution. I have chosen SE Africa because of its important place in the origin of many species including hominoids. This is an alternative view of vertebrate adaptability in SE Africa during the last 20,000 yrs. It considers relative humidity, animal adaptability and migration. This is a six-part analysis of conditions, supported by data, examples and projections of further changes in populations in SE Africa. This should demonstrate that an outside force is driving animal behavior which results in physical and behavioral adaptation and the origin of new species.

Origin of the Species should be revised. This approach was politically and socially motivated. It does not consider alternative views. It postulates that animals and plants genetically adapt to attain an optimum of performance. It implies that there is a narrowing of focus through differentiation that is progressively better. It presumes the philosophical question of a decision tree with an apex. I believe that this view presents a bias of thinking pervasive in the Victorian era.

Although it is implied, there is no proof of progressive improvement in the Darwinian model. Further as we degrade the environment the apex creatures may in fact be the first to go extinct. Depending on your point of view, does increased specialization imply improvement or loss of adaptive capacity? In fact does life and specialization run contrary to the laws of thermodynamics? The second law of thermodynamics predicts that disorganization will prevail. Highly organized life forms will fail but adaptable, simpler life will prevail. The apex creature may be the worst.

See the previous posts on these links that led to this site: 1 2 3 4

PROBLEM STATEMENT:

The Theory of Evolution, proposed by Darwin and Russel, is not sufficiently comprehensive to describe the evolving species of mammals in SE  Africa during the period of time starting 20,000 years ago until today.

PURPOSE:

The purpose of this study is to find a challenger to the Darwinian theory. I propose the “Theory of Specialization Extinction”. Understanding this concept should guide plans for research and remedy if that is desirable.

HYPOTHESIS:

There is a relationship of four factors that seem to be the driving forces of evolution which differs from the variables proposed by Darwin: time, animal adaptability, humidity and migration. This is the foundation to the Theory of Specialization Extinction

METHOD:

Assemble a database, query it, and interpret the outcomes. The relationships were plotted in a series of graphs where X axis is time, y axis is animal adaptability, z axis is relative humidity graph. The time line is the past 20,000 years. The location is in SE Africa. Use existing data gleaned from multiple Google searches and derive PYTHON software to plot the relationships.

The following graphics are the results of a 3D plot of the variables in a X,Y,Z cartesian coordinate graph. Accompanying this are 2D images for simplified viewing. On the page left side is the graphic. On the page right side is a summary interpretation of the plots on the graph. Where adaptability is the biological versatility and survival threshold of the regional fauna.

Humidity and animal ADAPTABILITY

Fig. 1 A 3D graph plotting time (X), animal adaptability (Y), and relative humidity (Z) for SE Africa shows an inverse correlation.

Deep Purple & Blue (The Past / 20k YBP): These colors represent the earliest part of the timeline, capturing the cold, dry conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) [1]. Vertebrate adaptability scores start here.
Vibrant Magenta & Pink (The Climate Pivot / 15k to 5k YBP): This transition color highlights the shift into the African Humid Period [1]. It shows where relative humidity spiked dramatically, expanding habitats and ecosystems [1].
Bright Yellow & Gold (The Modern Era / Present Day): This final color marks the end of the timeline (the present day) [1]. It visualizes the end result of centuries of aridification, where vertebrate adaptability reaches its modern peak due to evolutionary pressures [1].

Key trends shown in the plot include

• The Humidity Spike (Z-Axis): You will see a clear, high-amplitude “hump” between 15k and 5k YBP. This represents the African Humid Period when mega-lakes expanded across Southern and Eastern Africa.
• The Adaptability March (Y-Axis): The trend line creeps steadily upward as time advances. Environmental volatility forces a transition away from specialized, delicate ecological niches. This shifts the ecosystem composition toward hyper-adaptable, generalist vertebrate species (e.g., highly mobile bovids, resilient apex predators).

The 20,000-Year Timeline

• 20,000 to 15,000 Years Ago (Last Glacial Maximum):
  • Z (Humidity): Low. The climate was cool and highly arid caused by glaciation
  • Y (Adaptability): Low to Moderate. Only highly resilient generalist species (versatile feeders and water-independent grazers) persisted in the harsh, patchy grassland habitats. [1, 2, 3]
• 15,000 to 5,000 Years Ago (African Humid Period):
  • Z (Humidity): High. Monsoon rains expanded into the southern tropics, creating vast, resource-rich savannas and lakes (such as those in the Lake Malawi basin).
  • Y (Adaptability): High. The lush, stable environment allowed for an expansion of both generalist and highly specialized animal species. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
• 5,000 Years Ago to Present Day (Progressive Acidification): Caused by increased heat. Not by glaciation.
  • Z (Humidity): Decreasing. Regional humidity dropped significantly, causing a return to arid or semi-arid conditions.
  • Y (Adaptability): Bifurcating. Highly specialized taxa (niche foragers) faced extinction, while the surviving fauna demonstrated exceptional, evolutionarily “winnowed” adaptability. [1, 2]. Cats loose. Hyena win.

Fig 2. is a view of the 3D graph showing only the X,Y plane.

Figures 3 and 4 provide similar views of the same information Fig. 3 removes the time variable.

Fig. 4 is an orthographic view showing compression of the data .

Humidity and migration

Here is evidence of relative humidity directly influencing mass migration intensity

Archaeological and Fossil Evidence of animal activity reflecting adaptability in SE Africa

The term pulse implies large movement of the animals along low barrier corridors in response to climate shift. The animals follow the water.

1. Pulse 1 Evidence (~14,000 YBP – The Open Savannah Expansion)

• Fossil Records (Bovid Turnover): Fossil assemblages from sites like Wonderwerk Cave and Shongweni show a dramatic turnover in mammalian fauna at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). As the climate shifted toward the African Humid Period, dry-grassland specialists (like the extinct giant equine Equus capensis) vanished or migrated out, replaced rapidly by water-dependent, browsing, and mixed-feeding bovids.
• Archaeological Evidence (Tool-kit Transitions): Human populations tracked these shifting game migrations. Archaeological layers from the transition to the Robberg and Oakhurst technocomplexes reveal a sudden change in hunting equipment. Large stone segments used for hunting open-plains migratory herds gave way to smaller, diverse tools optimized for trapping and hunting non-migratory bush-dwelling animals as woodlands expanded.

2. The Humid Period Stabilization (~15,000 to 5,000 YBP)

• Lake Malawi Sediment Cores: Core samples from Lake Malawi show high lake levels and dense surrounding forest cover during this window. Fossil pollen and micro-faunal remains confirm stable, localized populations. Animals did not need to undergo high-intensity, desperate mass migrations because resource baselines were rich and stationary.

3. Pulse 2 Evidence (~5,000 YBP – The Great Aridification Filter)

• The Refugia Bottleneck: As SE Africa rapidly dried out around 5,000 years ago, animals migrated en masse toward permanent water networks—specifically the Limpopo and Zambezi River basins. Fossil bone beds in these valley zones show dense, hyper-concentrated mixtures of diverse animal remains from this era, confirming they served as environmental “refugia” where species huddled to survive.
• Extinction and the Generalist Winnowing: Niche-dependent, specialized megafauna suffered severe localized extinctions. The fossil layers moving into the Late Holocene show a stark homogenization: specialized grazing species are missing, leaving behind the exact highly adaptable, generalist survivors we see today (e.g., impalas, kudus, spotted hyenas).
• Human Forager Disruption: Archaeological sites across Zimbabwe and Mozambique document a matching disruption in human behavior. The Wilton culture hunter-gatherers abandoned many open inland sites completely around 5,000–4,000 YBP, tracking the migrating game lines to settle permanently along coastal zones or river valleys where permanent water persisted.

Future Bidirectional Wildlife Corridors (2026–2100)

In the coming decades, animal migrations in East Africa will move along a specific north-south coastal ribbon of land. This corridor is bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east and the “Great Mountain Wall” to the west—a rugged barrier formed by the eastern branch of the East African Rift, including the Southern Highlands, the Eastern Arc Mountains, and Mount Kilimanjaro.

As climate shifts alter regional moisture, wildlife will rely on this coastal strip for survival. They will follow this route:

               [ NORTHERN TERMINUS: Horn of Africa / Somalia ]
                                  ▲      │
                                  │      │
     THE GREAT                    │      ▼
   MOUNTAIN WALL         [ EQUATORIAL ECOTONE: Tana & Galana Basins ]
 (Rift Escarpments,               ▲      │
  Eastern Arc Mts,                │      ▼
 Kilimanjaro, Kenya              [ INTERMEDIATE SAVANNA: Tsavo-Mkomazi Corridor ]
   Dome Uplands)                  ▲      │
                                  │      ▼
                         [ MARITIME REFUGE: Rufiji & Ruvuma River Systems ]
                                  ▲      │
                                  │      ▼
               [ SOUTHERN TERMINUS: Greater Limpopo / Gorongosa ]

---

These three routs will provide key bidirectional corridors which will be followed as the climate shifts. These will allow limited local migration. There is no longer an escape from SE Africa as aridification intensifies and desertification becomes irreversible.

1. The Ruvuma-Rufiji Maritime Fluvial Conduit

• Geography: Connects northern Mozambique (Gorongosa and Niassa) across the Ruvuma River into southern Tanzania (Selous/Nyerere Ecosystem).
• Northward Pulse (Wet-Season Dispersal): Driven by expanding summer monsoons, water-dependent megafauna (elephants, buffaloes) will push north along the coastal plains.
• Southward Pulse (Dry-Season Retreat): As interior grasslands dry up, wildlife will move south, tracking reliable water in the permanent Ruvuma and Rufiji river networks.

2. The Mkomazi-Tsavo Arid-Savanna Link

• Geography: Straddles the Tanzania-Kenya border, running squeezed between the Usambara Mountains and the ocean.
• Northward Pulse (Xeric Colonization): Highly adaptable, drought-tolerant species (oryx, gerenuk, lesser kudu) will push north into Tsavo as it becomes more arid.
• Southward Pulse (Rift-Fringe Buffer): Zebra and wildebeest populations will move south toward the wetter mountain foothills when coastal plains dry out.

3. The Tana-Galana Equatorial Ecotone

• Geography: Runs through eastern Kenya up to the Somali border, acting as a critical buffer zone just east of the Kenyan Highlands.
• Northward Pulse (Opportunistic Browsing): Giraffes and resilient browsers will move north during brief, intense rainfall spikes.
• Southward Pulse (Hyper-Arid Push): Extreme droughts in the Horn of Africa will force northern species to migrate south toward the permanent Tana River basin for survival.

---

This is a Species-Specific Survival Outlook indicating COMPARATIVE survival (2026–2100)

Based on the presentation of this and the last four postings this is my projection for the next 75 years. Table 1 is the migration behavior timeline correlated to climate benchmarks

Micro drivers of adaptability

Climate Era	Projected Timeframe	Principal Climate Driver	Expected Migration Dynamics
Short-Term Baseline	2026 – 2040	Increased frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies.	Highly erratic, localized pulses. Erratic weather triggers unseasonal migrations between protected parks. Wildlife increasingly relies on community-managed conservancies outside park boundaries.
Mid-Century Shift	2041 – 2070	Aridification of the interior; expansion of coastal savannas.	Consolidated north-south corridors. Large-scale migrations lock into a north-south pattern along the coast. Favorable eco-zones contract, squeezing animals between human infrastructure and the mountains.
Long-Term Equilibrium	2071 – 2100+	Permanent hyper-aridity in the Horn; the coastal savanna shifts inland.	Systemic bidirectional loops. Long-distance migrations become highly synchronized. Resilient, generalist species dominate these routes, while specialized species are limited to small mountain refuges.

---

Transecting Infrastructure CAUSING Bottlenecks & Blockades

To assess how these vital coastal corridors will function through the end of the century, we must look at how future infrastructure blockades collide with the survival traits of specific indicator large mammals. Squeezed between the Indian Ocean and the Great Mountain Wall, wildlife will face unprecedented structural bottlenecks.

Some animals will be restricted because of these three major east-west transport corridors which run completely perpendicular to the north-south migration routes. They will act as physical barriers to those species which cannot physically overcome the obstacles of topography, traffic, fences and human presence. They are listed here [1, 2]:

  [ NORTHERN TERMINUS: Horn of Africa / Somalia ]
       │
       ▼
  [====== LAPSSET Corridor (Lamu-Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Highway/Rail) ======]
       │
       ▼
  [====== Northern Corridor (Mombasa-Nairobi SGR Railway / A109 Highway) ======]
       │
       ▼
  [====== Central Corridor (Dar es Salaam-Morogoro-Dodoma Standard Gauge Rail) =]
       │
       ▼
  [ SOUTHERN TERMINUS: Greater Limpopo / Gorongosa Ecosystem ]

These are some of the problematic causal locations and issues:

1. The Central Corridor (Tanzania): The newly operational Dar es Salaam–Morogoro–Dodoma Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) [3] cuts directly across the northern exit of the Selous/Nyerere ecosystem. Its fencing and elevated tracks force elephants and buffaloes into narrow, artificial underpasses.
2. The Northern Corridor (Kenya): The Mombasa–Nairobi SGR [4] and parallel A109 highway sever the Tsavo East and Tsavo West ecosystems. While some elevated viaducts exist, increased traffic makes crossing dangerous for large herds.
3. The LAPSSET Corridor (Northern Kenya): This mega-project cuts straight across the Tana River basin up to Lamu [5]. It creates a final, major barrier for animals attempting to migrate between Kenya and Somalia.

---

Depending on their skill set, groups of different species will handle these infrastructure barriers and climate shifts in very different ways. Here are groups 1. Generalists and 2 Specialists.

                  ┌────────────────────────────────────────┐
                  │      SPECIES SURVIVAL PROFILES         │
                  └────────────────────────────────────────┘
                                      │
         ┌────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────┐
         ▼                                                         ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────┐                       ┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│    1.THE ADAPTABLE GENERALIST   │                       │    2. THE STRANDED SPECIALIST   │
│  (High Mobility / Resilient)    │                       │   (Fencing Vulnerable / Niche)  │
├─────────────────────────────────┤                       ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│ • African Bush Elephant         │                       │ • Blue Wildebeest               │
│ • Spotted Hyena                 │                       │ • Reticulated Giraffe           │
│ • Plains Zebra                  │                       │ • Coastal Topi / Hirola         │
└─────────────────────────────────┘                       └─────────────────────────────────┘

Flow diagram. Group 1: The diverse, adaptable skill set group. Group 2. The generalists (High Survival Probability)

Group 1:

• African Bush Elephant (Loxodonta africana):
  • Traits: High cognitive mapping, long-distance memory, and sheer physical power.
  • Outlook: Elephants are highly adaptable. They learn to actively navigate infrastructure by locating underpasses or breaking through weak fencing when necessary. They will easily use the Ruvuma-Rufiji conduit to track water resources.
• Spotted Hyena (Crocuta crocuta):
  • Traits: Extremely diverse diet, nocturnal flexibility, and comfortable around human landscapes.
  • Outlook: Hyenas can move easily through fragmented zones. They will use drainage culverts and road shoulders to cross highways, thriving along the corridors by scavenging on roadkill and livestock.

Group 2: The Stranded Specialists (High Extinction Risk)

• Blue Wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus):
  • Traits: Rely on open, unfenced pathways to track seasonal rains.
  • Outlook: Wildebeest are highly vulnerable to fencing. Unlike elephants, they will not challenge a fence line and lack the agility to leap over barriers. The Tsavo-Mkomazi link will likely see localized wildebeest collapses as linear infrastructure seals off their routes.
• Reticulated Giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis reticulata):
  • Traits: Limited agility; anatomically incapable of using standard railway underpasses or low viaducts.
  • Outlook: Giraffes are easily trapped by fences and overpasses. The LAPSSET and Northern corridors risk completely splitting northern giraffe populations from southern ones, leading to isolated, vulnerable genetic pockets.

The Four Macro-Drivers of Adaptability that parallel humidity for causality

While relative humidity directly dictates water availability and respiratory comfort, it operates alongside three other major catalysts for adaptation. I believe that there are several macro-environmental drivers that influence animal adaptability similarly to or even greater than relative humidity. In the table below you see how four core forces compare. Relative humidity is at the bottom. These factors drive evolutionary changes and animal movements east of the great mountain wall. This study shows that at least one outside force could also be driving evolution. There may be other forces but as a working hypothesis these four deserve further research. I picked relative humidity for this discussion because it was the most evident while we were traveling.

Evolutionary Driver	Influence Level	Primary Biological Mechanism	Real-World Impact in East/Southeast Africa
1. Net Primary Productivity (NPP)	Greater	Food web energy, caloric baseline, and vegetation structure.	Dictates the exact carrying capacity of savannahs. When NPP drops, large grazers face immediate starvation.
2. Ambient Temperature Dynamics	Equal	Metabolic rates, thermal stress boundaries, and water-loss velocity.	Forces species into higher altitudes or dense shade to prevent dangerous overheating.
3. Landscape Roughness / Topography	Equal	Physical barriers, escape terrain, and microclimate patches.	The Great Mountain Wall protects localized species by trapping moisture, even during regional droughts.
4. Relative Humidity (Baseline)	Reference	Hydration balance, disease transmission, and evaporation rates.	Sets the broad boundaries for wet-forest vs. hyper-arid ecosystems.

---

The following are details of the evolutionary drivers listed in Table 2

1. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) — This shows why food is more influential than simple moisture

While humidity creates the climate background, Net Primary Productivity (the total amount of edible plant biomass generated by an ecosystem) is the ultimate filter for survival.

• The Energy Filter: An animal can survive low humidity, if it has access to moisture-rich roots, succulent leaves, or prey. NPP represents the actual fuel available to the food web.
• Adaptability Impact: When NPP drops, it triggers aggressive evolutionary pressure. This pressure favors hyper-adaptable mixed-feeders (like elephants and impalas) that can instantly switch from eating grass to chewing bark and twigs, thus outperforming picky, specialized leaf-eaters.

2. Ambient Temperature Dynamics & Thermal Scaling

Temperature variations often overpower humidity by pushing animals past their absolute physical limits.

• Metabolic and Water Costs: As temperatures rise, the amount of water an animal loses through panting or sweating increases exponentially.
• Adaptability Impact: High temperatures favor animals with clever cooling traits. This includes physical adaptations like the massive, heat-shedding ears of the elephant, behavioral shifts like becoming completely nocturnal, or physiological tricks like the gemsbok’s ability to let its core body temperature safely spike during the day to save water.

3. Topographic Heterogeneity (Landscape Roughness)

Recall from our first episode of this saga. The physical shape of the land—specifically the Great Mountain Wall—exerts a massive, nearly permanent influence on animal adaptability by creating reliable environmental safety nets.

• Microclimate Buffers: Flat plains offer no escape during a drought. In contrast, rugged mountain terrains create a patchwork of different microclimates, offering cooler temperatures and trapped moisture just a short climb away.
• Adaptability Impact: Complex landscapes allow less-adaptable, specialized species to survive in isolated mountain pockets (refugia) for thousands of years, completely shielded from the harsh changes happening on the open plains below.

CONCLUSION:

Combining the micro drivers, macro drivers and the transecting human infrastructures, animals will not escape. They will die from lack of water, starvation and over heating. Exquisitely wondrous, specialized species will vanish with no successor species to follow. Should we continue as we have or rewild to a state of 200 years ago or work for a better future?

We have completed the cat comparisons and with this effort shown that the theory of evolution should be subject to review and perhaps modification. The Theory of Specialization Extinction is incomplete without evidence and proof of concept. In order to provide evidence of this concept four things are needed. A well formulated scientific study. A rigorous review of the literature. A more comprehensive data base that includes not only the endangered species but also the support environment in which they live and the resources upon which they depend. A comprehensive plan for future management.

In a future post we will discuss what may be done to track cheetah, lions and all of the other animal species simultaneously. This would tell us where in lie the problems that may be remedied.

I hope that you enjoyed the pictures along the way. Here are pictures if the animals most likely to survive:

ADDITIONAL REFERENCES:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230607856_Evidence_for_progressive_Holocene_aridification_in_southern Africa_recorded_in_Namibian_hyrax_middens_Implications_for_African_Monsoon_dynamics_and_the_”African_Humid_Period”

Click to access PRINTED-Vet-No14-Aug2023.pdf

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